🧩 BND Motif Index · M911
Shy Tory
Backers of the less respectable side are said to hide it from pollsters and neighbors, so the polls miss them and the result surprises everyone: the shy Tory of 1992.
- 6claims filed under it
- 3center shows it came up on
- 4right shows it came up on
⚠️ A story people tell, not a claim that it's true.
A motif is the shape of a story as its tellers tell it, named the way a folklorist names a tale type, so the same story told about other people, by the other side or in another year lands in the same place. Some of the claims below are true, many are false. Arguing against a story is often a story of its own, its answer (Voter fraud is answered by Voter suppression, Lawfare by No one is above the law), and we file it there; where no answer has a motif yet, the arguments against a story sit with its tellings.
🪜 Its family
what it rests on, what rests on it, and the motifs that answer it
🪜 rests on 🧩 They're losing, actually!
⤵️ under it: 🧩 Bradley effect
🔗 goes with: 🧩 Polls are inaccurate 🧩 Polls are manipulated
🎙️ Who it came up with
the shows we follow where its claims came up, by the show's lean
🫏 left 0
🦗 none of our left shows, so far
"Came up on" means one of its claims was heard on the show: told, reported or argued against. We don't yet mark which. Show leans are our own grouping of the shows we transcribe.
🧶 Its claims
what's been told in this shape, newest first, in our words, with where each was heard
- 2026-10-27 “Republicans will win 52 Senate seats if they continue to outperform the polls as they have in recent cycles.”
🎙️ The Michael Berry Show 🎙️ Bannon's War Room - 2026-10-24 “Polls often undercount Republican Trump voters in key states.”
🎙️ The Mark Levin Show 🎙️ Bannon's War Room - 2026-10-22 “Pollsters make biased assumptions about the electorate because response rates have changed.”
🎙️ Clay Travis & Buck Sexton - 2026-10-22 “Pollsters may fail to reach rural voters in states like Iowa and Kansas.”
🎙️ 1A (WAMU/NPR) 🎙️ Clay Travis & Buck Sexton - 2026-10-16 “Pollsters may be failing to find or connect with Trump voters.”
🎙️ Top Story with Tom Llamas (NBC) - 2026-10-12 “Polls may miss Republicans who won't talk to pollsters or rarely vote.”
🎙️ Breaking Points
M911 · first seen 2026-10-12 · last 2026-10-27 · what this is · how the index works